Florida, Texas, and Louisiana, be prepared! This year’s hurricane season is not looking good- experts predict an abnormally bad season in which every coastal state from Maine to Florida faces a much higher chance of hurricanes and storms making landfall. This is due to the incoming La Nina and warmer Atlantic, which is causing above-average activity, making it more conducive to hurricane formation. The Colorado State University’s hurricane forecast report predicts a higher probability of major hurricanes and storms in 2024 compared to the historical average.
Chances of Major Hurricanes are High
Experts are already predicting that the 2024 hurricane season will bring eleven hurricanes, out of which five will become major hurricanes with category 3 to 5 intensity and sustained winds of 111 miles per hour or greater. Florida is at the highest risk, with meteorologists at Colorado State University estimating a 44% chance of a major hurricane hitting the state. Texas follows close behind with a 25% chance, while Louisiana has a 23% chance of facing a major hurricane.
Alabama, South Carolina, Mississippi, North Carolina, and Georgia are also expected to have a double-digit chance of being struck by a major hurricane.
Below you will find a state-by-state list of hurricane probabilities, this data is based on the Colorado State University’s hurricane forecast report for 2024 Hurricane season compared to the historical averages from 1880-2020.
Alabama
- Major Hurricane (2024): 14%
- Hurricane (2024): 43%
- Named Storm (2024): 78%
In Alabama, the chance of a major hurricane in 2024 is 14%, which is significantly higher than the historical average of 8%. While the probability of hurricanes in 2024 is predicted to be 43%, which is above the historical average of 28%, the number of named storms, at 78%, is also higher compared to the historical average of 58%.
Connecticut
- Major Hurricane (2024): 2%
- Hurricane (2024): 13%
- Named Storm (2024): 35%
The chance of a major hurricane in Connecticut in 2024 is only 2%, aligning closely with the historical average of 1%. However, the chances of a hurricane striking Connecticut are 13% in 2024, which is well above the historical average of 8%. Named storms are expected to be 35%, higher than the historical average of 22%.
Delaware
- Major Hurricane (2024): 1%
- Hurricane (2024): 10%
- Named Storm (2024): 35%
Compared to the other coastal states on this list, the chance of a major hurricane striking Delaware in 2024 is 1%, aligning with the historical average of 1%. Hurricanes and named storms in 2024, at 10% and 35%, respectively, are predicted to be slightly higher compared to their historical averages of 6% and 23%.
Florida
- Major Hurricane (2024): 44%
- Hurricane (2024): 75%
- Named Storm (2024): 96%
Experts predict Florida to have an unusually high level of hurricane activity. The chances of a major hurricane in 2024 are 44%, which is significantly higher than the historical average of 29%. Hurricanes and named storms in 2024 are predicted to be 75% and 96%, respectively, also significantly higher than their historical averages of 56% and 86%.
Georgia
- Major Hurricane (2024): 10%
- Hurricane (2024): 46%
- Named Storm (2024): 82%
The chance of Georgia witnessing a major hurricane in 2024 is 10%, a lot higher than the historical average of 6%. The probability of hurricanes and named storms in 2024, at 46% and 82%, respectively, are higher compared to their historical averages of 30% and 63%.
Louisiana
- Major Hurricane (2024): 23%
- Hurricane (2024): 56%
- Named Storm (2024): 84%
Experts predict that there is a 23% chance that Louisiana will be hit by a major hurricane in 2024. This is a lot higher than the historical average of 14%. The chances of hurricanes and named storms in 2024, 56% and 84%, respectively, are also significantly higher when compared to the historical averages of 38% and 66%.
Maine
- Major Hurricane (2024): 2%
- Hurricane (2024): 11%
- Named Storm (2024): 34%
Maine is expected to have minimal impact from major hurricanes in 2024, with only 2% chance, aligning closely with the historical average of 1%. The chances of hurricanes and named storms in 2024, at 11% and 34%, respectively, are higher compared to their historical averages of 7% and 21%.
Maryland
- Major Hurricane (2024): 1%
- Hurricane (2024): 18%
- Named Storm (2024): 47%
Maryland is expected to have a a minor chance of major hurricanes in 2024, at 1%, aligning with the historical average of 1%. The chances of Hurricanes and named storms in 2024 are 18% and 47%, respectively, which is predicted to be higher compared to their historical averages of 11% and 31%.
Massachusetts
- Major Hurricane (2024): 5%
- Hurricane (2024): 23%
- Named Storm (2024): 49%
Massachusetts’s chances of having a major hurricane in 2024 are 5%, which is higher than the historical average of 3%. The chances of hurricanes and named storms in 2024 are also higher, at 23% and 49%, respectively, compared to their historical averages of 14% and 33%.
Mississippi
- Major Hurricane (2024): 13%
- Hurricane (2024): 43%
- Named Storm (2024): 72%
The chances of Mississippi having major hurricanes in 2024 are 13%, compared to the historical average of 8%. Experts predict many hurricanes and named storms in 2024, at 43% and 72%, respectively, which is higher compared to their historical averages of 28% and 53%.
New Hampshire
- Major Hurricane (2024): 2%
- Hurricane (2024): 9%
- Named Storm (2024): 29%
The chances of a major hurricane hitting New Hampshire in 2024 are only 2%, aligning closely with the historical average of 1%. Experts predict a more active season, with Hurricanes and named storms expected to hit New Hampshire at 9% and 29%, respectively, which is slightly higher compared to their historical averages of 6% and 18%.
New Jersey
- Major Hurricane (2024): 1%
- Hurricane (2024): 11%
- Named Storm (2024): 35%
The chance of a major hurricane striking New Jersey in 2024 is 1%, aligning with the historical average of 1%. Hurricanes and named storms in 2024 are predicted to hit NJ at 11% and 35%, respectively, which is slightly higher compared to their historical averages of 7% and 23%.
New York
- Major Hurricane (2024): 4%
- Hurricane (2024): 16%
- Named Storm (2024): 41%
Experts predict that the chances of a major hurricane hitting New York in 2024 are 4%, which is significantly higher than the historical average of 2%. There will be more Hurricanes and named storms in 2024, at 16% and 41%, respectively, which is higher compared to their historical averages of 9% and 26%.
North Carolina
- Major Hurricane (2024): 13%
- Hurricane (2024): 56%
- Named Storm (2024): 85%
The chances of a major hurricane hitting North Carolina in 2024 are 13%, which is much higher than the historical average of 8%. Hurricanes and named storms in 2024 are predicted to strike North Carolina at 56% and 85%, respectively, which is higher compared to their historical averages of 38% and 68%.
Rhode Island
- Major Hurricane (2024): 2%
- Hurricane (2024): 13%
- Named Storm (2024): 32%
Rhode Island is expected to experience minimal impact from major hurricanes in 2024, with only 2%, aligning closely with the historical average of 1%. Hurricanes and named storms in 2024, at 13% and 32%, respectively, which is slightly higher compared to their historical averages of 8% and 20%.
South Carolina
- Major Hurricane (2024): 14%
- Hurricane (2024): 44%
- Named Storm (2024): 76%
South Carolina is forecasted to have a significant increase in major hurricanes in 2024, at 14%, compared to the historical average of 8%. Hurricanes and named storms are also forecast to increase significantly in 2024, at 44% and 76%, respectively, compared to their historical averages of 29% and 57%.
Texas
- Major Hurricane (2024): 25%
- Hurricane (2024): 54%
- Named Storm (2024): 80%
Brace yourself for a bad hurricane season in Texas! Experts are predicting that Texas will have a 25% chance of a major hurricane in 2024. This is significantly higher compared to the historical average of 16%. Even the chances of Hurricanes and named storms in 2024 will be high at 54% and 80%, respectively. These percentages are much higher compared to their historical averages of 36% and 61%.
Virginia
- Major Hurricane (2024): 2%
- Hurricane (2024): 31%
- Named Storm (2024): 65%
Virginia is expected to have minimal impact from major hurricanes in 2024, with only a 2% chance, aligning closely with the historical average of 1%. The chances of Hurricanes and named storms in 2024 are 31% and 65%, respectively, which is much higher compared to their historical averages of 20% and 46%.
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